This week’s markets kicked off with a sharp rally in Japanese equities following the Lower House election, while the latter half of the week was marked by volatility driven by U.S. employment data, AI-related headlines, and rapid currency movements.
Political stability, shifting rate expectations, the disruptive power of AI, and a potential turning point in FX markets all converged—creating a noisy environment for short‑term traders, but an important reminder for long‑term investors to stay in the market.
U.S. Equities: AI Volatility and concerns over slowing employment and consumption
The S&P 500 stalled just below the 7,000‑point mark.
Key drivers included:
- Renewed concerns over slowing employment and consumption
- A sharp sell-off in transportation stocks after AI-driven logistics announcements
- “Winner‑takes‑all” fears weighing on tech stocks
https://jp.tradingview.com/heatmap/stock/
Meanwhile, Oracle surged +14.59%, showing the widening divergence within AI‑related names.
Cisco’s decline also looked less dramatic when viewed on a multi‑year chart—more of a pullback after rapid gains than a structural shift.
Short‑term headlines often exaggerate, but long‑term trends remain steady.
Japanese Equities: “Takaichi Trade” Pushes Nikkei to Record Highs
Following the election, the Nikkei hit three consecutive all‑time highs.
Market sentiment was driven by:
- Expectations of political stability under the new administration
- Reduced political risk premiums
- Continued foreign inflows into Japanese equities
Rather than yen‑weakness speculation, investors appeared to reward lower uncertainty—a powerful tailwind for Japan’s market.
FX Markets: Yen Strength Across Major Currencies
The yen strengthened not only against the U.S. dollar but also the euro, pound, and Singapore dollar.
Multiple factors contributed:
- Renewed expectations of U.S. rate cuts
- Shifts in the Bank of Japan’s policy stance
- Position unwinding by speculative traders
- Political stability reducing Japan’s risk premium
- Reports of China advising institutions to limit U.S. Treasury purchases
Notably, the yen regained characteristics of a “safe and stable currency”—a dynamic not seen in some time.
The coordinated U.S.–Japan rate check in January also reinforced the message that excessive yen weakness will not be tolerated.
Index Investing: Global Equity Fund Surpasses ¥10 Trillion
Japan’s most popular low‑cost global index fund surpassed ¥10 trillion in AUM, underscoring the growing strength of long‑term, diversified investing.
As Warren Buffett famously said:
“Staying in the market is the most important thing for investors.”
This week proved that point once again.
Summary: Ignore the Noise, Stay in the Market
This week brought:
- A post‑election surge in Japanese equities
- Yen strength across major currencies
- AI‑driven volatility in U.S. markets
- A major milestone for global index investing
- Renewed awareness of the power of tax optimization
Markets will always fluctuate, but the core principles of wealth-building remain unchanged:
Long-term. Diversified. Consistent.
Stay in the market.
Let’s keep moving forward, steadily and calmly.
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