How an active Japanese banker sees this week’s markets
Japan Equities: New All-Time High, Then a Friday Pullback
Japanese equities had a big week.
The Nikkei 225 climbed to a fresh all-time closing high of 59,518 on Thursday (April 16), powered by fading Middle East tensions and renewed momentum in semiconductors.
TOPIX also held near record territory around 3,739.
Then Friday handed back 1,042 points as traders locked in profits ahead of the weekend’s geopolitical risk. Even so, the Nikkei finished the week up roughly +2.7% (+1,551 points).
As someone with 30 years on the front lines of Japanese banking, I’ve seen this pattern many times: a short-squeeze rally on easing geopolitical stress, then a Friday digestion day.
The underlying story is still that Japanese earnings and corporate governance reforms are working in investors’ favor. But a week like this is a reminder that index records don’t mean the next day has to be up.
U.S. Markets: Ceasefire Hopes and a Return to Semis
The S&P 500 added +3.3% on the week and closed near all-time highs around 7,041.
The Nasdaq ripped +5.2% and posted its longest winning streak since 2009, with 12 consecutive up sessions.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index made five straight record closes.
Q1 2026 earnings season kicked off with BlackRock and Morgan Stanley both beating estimates — Morgan Stanley’s equities trading revenue hit an all-time high.
Two sentiment signals are worth pairing here. The VIX has fallen more than 40% from its late-March peak near 32, and the CNN Fear & Greed Index has swung from “Extreme Fear” all the way back into “Greed” in just a few weeks.
That kind of sentiment whiplash is exactly when long-term investors should stay disciplined — not chase the rally, not exit, just keep the schedule.
Sector leadership is clearly rotating back toward technology and semis from March’s energy/defensive tilt.
💱 FX: A Volatile USD/JPY Around 158
USD/JPY swung in a ¥2 range on Friday alone — high of 159.52, low of 157.59, settling near 158.2.
Oil headlines, U.S. yields, and thin pre-weekend liquidity all played a part.
During my 10 years working overseas, I learned that Japanese retail investors often forget to measure their portfolio in yen terms when the currency gets noisy.
A 3% index move can become a 1% move in yen, or a 5% move, depending on the day’s currency print. The discipline is to measure what actually happened to your total wealth — not just the headline index.
🧭 Long-Term View: When Fear Flips to Greed, Stay Disciplined
Big up-weeks feel satisfying, but they also tempt investors to either chase or take risk off. Neither is usually necessary.
Q1 S&P 500 EPS growth is tracking roughly +13% year-over-year, and earnings are arriving in line with — or ahead of — expectations.
The bigger story this week is sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index has snapped from “Extreme Fear” to “Greed” in a matter of weeks, which historically calls for more caution, not more courage.
Let price action confirm the fundamentals, keep your contribution schedule, and watch next week’s earnings and Middle East headlines without reacting to every tick.
Full Japanese version: 半導体とAIが主役に戻った1週間｜今週の資産形成ニュース（4月第3週） – 50代リアルマネー｜金融30年×資産1億
コメント