How an active Japanese banker sees this week’s markets
Japan Equities: Racing Toward the 60,000 Milestone
The Nikkei 225 climbed steadily throughout the week, reaching 59,716 yen by Friday, April 24 — setting a new all-time high and edging ever closer to the psychologically significant 60,000 level.
The week opened at 58,824 yen on Monday. By Friday, it had added roughly 900 yen, fueled primarily by AI and semiconductor-related stocks.
The catalyst? Positive earnings from Intel in the U.S. rippled across the Pacific, driving gains in names like Ibiden and SoftBank Group.
The AI investment theme, which has been reshaping U.S. markets for the past few years, is now increasingly influencing Japanese equity markets as well.
Having spent 30 years in the financial industry, I’ve watched Japan’s market go through multiple boom-and-bust cycles.
What strikes me about this rally is its breadth — it’s not just a handful of mega-caps carrying the index; there’s genuine participation across sectors. Whether that continues past 60,000 will be one of the more interesting stories of the coming weeks.
U.S. Markets: Ceasefire Extension + Strong Earnings Drive New Record Highs
The dominant theme in U.S. markets this week was a one-two punch of geopolitical relief and corporate earnings strength.
On Wednesday, April 22, President Trump announced an extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire — a development that reversed two days of modest selling pressure and propelled the S&P 500 to 7,138 (+1.05%), a new all-time high.
By Friday, the index extended gains further to 7,165 (+0.80%), marking three consecutive record-high closes.
| Date | S&P 500 | Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon (4/20) | 7,109 | －0.24% | Ceasefire uncertainty |
| Tue (4/21) | 7,064 | －0.63% | 2nd consecutive decline |
| Wed (4/22) | 7,138 | ＋1.05% | Ceasefire extension — new all-time high |
| Thu (4/23) | — | continued | 4th consecutive gain |
| Fri (4/24) | 7,165 | ＋0.80% | 5 consecutive gains — 3rd straight record |
The earnings backdrop has been equally supportive.
With roughly 28% of S&P 500 companies having reported Q1 2026 results, an impressive 84% have beaten EPS estimates — with actual results coming in 12.3% above expectations on average. The Information Technology sector has been the standout, consistent with the broader AI investment narrative.
Having lived overseas for about 10 years, I noticed that earnings season in the U.S. carries a different kind of energy than in Japan.
It’s the moment when market optimism or pessimism gets measured against cold, hard numbers. Right now, the numbers are speaking clearly in favor of the bulls.
💱 FX: USD/JPY Hovers Near 159 Amid Mixed Signals
The yen ended the week at 159.38 against the dollar (Friday close), having traded in a range of roughly 159.31 to 159.84.
Sentiment was pulled in two directions.
Middle East tensions provided intermittent support for safe-haven yen buying, while improving risk appetite globally pushed back in the other direction.
The key variable for the coming week will be the Federal Reserve — specifically, whether the FOMC statement on April 28–29 provides any clearer guidance on the timing of potential rate cuts.
Any dovish signal could weaken the dollar and drive USD/JPY lower. Any hint of rates staying higher for longer could extend yen weakness.
🧭 Long-Term View: The Numbers Are Good — But Stay Disciplined
Fear & Greed swung from Extreme Fear (around 15) in late March to Greed (around 66) this week — a remarkable 50-point reversal in just a few weeks.
It reflects genuine good news: a ceasefire, strong earnings, and markets near all-time highs.
But this is also precisely the moment where discipline matters most.
In my experience, it’s easy to stay the course when markets are falling — you tell yourself to wait it out. The harder test is when everything is green and the temptation is to load up at the top.
The investors who build real wealth over time are the ones who don’t let euphoria change their strategy any more than fear does.
Keep your allocation. Keep your contributions. The compounding is doing its work whether or not you check the screen every hour.
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