Weekly Money News – May, Week 1

How an active Japanese banker sees this week’s markets

Japan Equities: The 60,000 Milestone — and a Wake-Up Call from the Yen

This week, the Nikkei 225 crossed a historic threshold: on April 28, it closed above 60,000 for the first time ever, ending the session at 60,537 — a gain of over 820 points in a single day.

Driven by strong buying in technology stocks such as Advantest, the milestone captured the attention of both domestic and international investors.

However, the index quickly gave back some of those gains. By May 1, the Nikkei had pulled back to 59,513, and the week ended roughly 200 points below the previous week’s close — the fourth consecutive weekly decline.

As someone with 30 years on the front lines of Japanese banking, I’ve seen this pattern many times: a significant psychological barrier is broken, a brief surge of excitement follows, and then the market consolidates. This is healthy, not alarming.

TOPIX moved broadly in line with the Nikkei, reflecting broad-based but cautious participation across sectors.

U.S. Markets: A Historic FOMC and a Stellar Earnings Season

The week’s biggest event in U.S. markets was the April 28–29 FOMC meeting. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% — as expected. What was not expected: four dissenting votes.

Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that rising oil prices would “push up overall inflation” in the near term, signaling continued caution on the rate-cutting path. His term expires on May 15, with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh widely seen as the frontrunner to succeed him. The new chair’s first public statement will likely move markets.

On the earnings front, the season has been impressive. Of 139 S&P 500 companies reporting so far:

Five of the Magnificent Seven reported this week alone. The S&P 500 ended the week at a new all-time high of 7,230. Strong fundamentals remain intact.

💱 FX: The Ministry of Finance Fires Back

The most dramatic move of the week came in foreign exchange. Dollar-yen surged to 160.73 on April 30 — a new year-to-date high — prompting Japan’s Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan to intervene in the market.

For overseas investors, Japan’s FX intervention policy remains an important background risk. The government appears willing to defend the 160 level, at least for now. Watch whether dollar-yen can hold the post-intervention range heading into next week’s heavy U.S. data calendar.

🧭 Long-Term View: Noise Is Loud; Time Is Patient

Between a historic Nikkei milestone, a 34-year FOMC anomaly, and a surprise FX intervention all landing in the same week, it would be easy to feel overwhelmed. But markets have always been noisy — and long-term investors have always been rewarded for tuning out the noise.

The CNN Fear & Greed Index now sits at 67 (Greed), having climbed roughly 55 points from extreme-fear readings just weeks ago. Sentiment moves fast; fundamentals move slower. The underlying case for diversified, long-term investing hasn’t changed.

History doesn’t repeat exactly, but patient capital tends to be well-rewarded.

📅 What to Watch Next Week

• 📅 May 5 (Tue)　ISM Non-Manufacturing Index / JOLTS Job Openings
• 📅 May 6 (Wed)　ADP Employment Report
• 📅 May 8 (Fri)　U.S. April Jobs Report (key) — will shape the Fed’s next move
• 📅 May 15 (Fri)　Powell’s term expires — Warsh expected to take over; first statement closely watched
• 📋 Earnings season continues — Nvidia and other key names due to report

🇯🇵 Full Japanese version: 今週の資産形成ニュース（5月第1週）
👤 About the author: aroundfiftyreal — Profile